Future MVNOs and future MVNO models

Future MVNO

The future of MVNOs has been a long time coming, however there is still a long way to go, and the activity of 2012 shows that we are in for a very interesting 2013 MVNO wise, which will reflect well for the Telegeography predictions for 2013

There is still huge untapped opportunities in MVNO

However there are two things that strike me from this:

Mature MVNO market share

Market share in mature markets such as the UK, arguably the most mature as it was the first MVNO market and the two big originators of the MVNO; Virgin Mobile and Tesco Mobile, now have way above the W. European average at 13.7% of the market just to themselves, down from over 14% the previous year.

Source: Informa Mobile media 2011, EE market estimate Innovation Observatory Research

The above Diagram has been used by EE in their MVNO address for the past few years, and hints at huge potential in the MVNO market, but as an MNO presentation only touches the bigger picture. 

MVNO Brand Segmentation

If we dig deeper, as I do when doing the marketing plan and product development for new MVNOs, we see that each segment of the MVNO market to date, even markets that claim to be overcrowded  like the Ethnic, Supermarket and Brand MVNO space, are not actually overcrowded at all:

Segmenting even mature, overcrowded MVNO sectors shows there is still a lot of opportunity

For example, the overcrowded Ethnic MVNO market in the UK is not in fact overcrowded at all; the big players' competitive analysis shows that they have saturated certain markets (probably 20 of the 258 countries) and certain demographics, but far from the whole sector. The same rings for the Supermarket MVNO and even the Brand MVNO space, the above date has been randomised and renamed to protect the innocent, but am more than happy to give anybody the template with the date, use the MVNO contactify link to get in touch.

Updated Future MVNOs

So what is left to do in the below? Well the answer is quite a lot: 

• Music is still in the pre-wholesale strategic sign-up phase, as is content, but you can expect the whole audio, video and other content market (think Red Bull MVNO model) to mature and expand.
• Data MVNO has expanded, with Dell and Lenovo doing a Laptop based deal, Kindle in ebooks, Tom Tom for GPS and the whole M2M space
• Healthcare has been successful in the US, and has lots of promise globally, with even Telefonica restructuring in 2012 to include a whole m-health vertical, which probably means its still in "the MNO can do it" mode, however this will soon change as MNOs dip their toes into the water via MVNOs
• Converged MVNOs are really coming, with Virgin Media adding 1 Million Tivo boxes to its 4 Million mobile customers and presumably even more broadband, expect a wider definition of convergence than we may expect is all I can say...
• The Global MVNO is also coming, however as we can see from the top graph, it needs the disparity between the various markets to meet, or at least more markets to reach the 10% MVNO market share for it to kick off.

Original Future MVNOs Article 2008:

Future MVNOs

Future Mobile Virtual network business Models

There are many upcoming MVNOs in the pipeline, however they are very different; they seem to be more mature, building on a core business proposition and mobile as a channel, rather than playing directly in the mobile space with a brand. For me the hottest MVNO prospects are:

• Music MVNOs, with wholesale data and even "all you can eat" data tariffs emerging but being slow to take-up, this model could work well. However, it will not be download as much as you like to a "free Nokia N91". It is more likely to take the form of an established music brand enabling either an On Device Portal to browse, find and purchase music, even download a certain amount of lower quality/realtone tracks immediately over 3G, but the general ideal will be to download and save them on a PC or shared network space and upload them to the device by memory card or even USB connection. As an advocate of wireless & mobile I have found it difficult to admit, but the fact is that MP3s over bluetooth, 3G and even Wi-Fi, just don't make for a great user experience, nor aid battery life - the spanner in many mobile cogs!
• Data MVNOs, building on mobile broadband, either by reselling or repackaging existing services, such as O2 mobile broadband, which is already resold by many players in the business as a service provider or enhanced service provider by hardware resellers, M2M providers and other solution providers and system integrators; or more complex solutions, which may or may not creep over into other areas above and below, such as hardware MVNOs.
• Healthcare: the opportunities are huge: I pay a handsome sum of money every month to an insurance company, less now I have filled in various profiles... the next step is for my insurer to give me a Nokia 5500, which could easily be paid for and more with my insurance, and which uploads my daily footsteps info to their database to reduce my premium when I exercise regularly. To see the output a healthcare MVNO would see from a Nokia 5500 click here. A lot easier than the pedometer my Health Insurance gives me now, and a proper MVNO revenue opportunity.
• Content MVNO. The content MVNO can work, despite the demise of ESPN, but it will be based on data usage with maybe an On Device Portal or a custom OTA firmware, where the "Vodafone Live" button starts the customer experience, rather that custom handset, and the business model will be around the value of that content, rather than trying to compete on minutes with the network; it has to be a content blackberry in terms of user take-up.
• Global MVNO. There has been little talk of this model, and so far we have just seen a few SIM based products, however, there is a huge market for the global traveller  from big city banker to individual consultant with passport, will travel, all the way down to interailing youth. There are many VAS that can be added to this model, from student info to VoIP or even just automated calling card applications.
• Converged MVNO. People have Skype, Dect phones, mobile phones, work IP phones, work analogue phones, SOHO phones, IM, SMS, uncountable emails, some web, some on exchange, some on their laptop/desktop... there is space for converged MVNOs in every sector, its just a question of who will move first, and watch everyone follow. Or Has Apple already led, and it will take the followers to not be so preoccupied with exclusivity and 40% to realise that convergence, and a X% of their mobile, broadband and roaming is a better deal...
• More coming soon...

Originally posted by Christian Borrman 18:50pm 11/11/08

Dell hardware MVNO

The evolution of the hardware MVNO model

The hardware model was a long time coming, the Dell MVNO is now Global, and Lenovo has joined the fray, who will be next? Will update soon, subscribe/follow to hear when!

Original Dell Hardware MVNO 2008:

Dell Hardware MVNO

Back in 2004 when I was finishing my 2005 Next generation MVNO report, I had a "Dell MVNO" hardware MVNO that Pyramid in their eternal wisdom decided was not a viable model and edited out. This model has formed the basis of the Apple MVNO/network agreements and the reported Nokia MVNO. We have seen services such as the carphone warehouse and Vodafone branded laptops, but when are we going to see the long overdue Dell MVNO, and will it be dell or another manufacturer like Acer or ASUS, or even HTC?

here part of the fourth go to market model that was in my original Next generation MVNO report, from 2004:

Dell, Sony? data MVNO

This model differs from the HP and IBM MVNO, in that the model involves IT companies that do not own a business intelligence/consulting arm, and therefore the dynamics are different, although the target market is very similar. Dell has lead the way in enterprise IT, and especially laptops for two reasons: one is the three year onsite warranty, and the second is the latest technology at a reasonable price. All Dells’ business laptops can be ordered with all three modes of WiFi and internal Bluetooth, with the latest technology at an unbeatable price. We have also seen Dell diverging into new areas new markets, such a printers, television and recently PDAs. With the advent of wireless adding questions marks to company future remote access requirements, and a dilemma for the consumer and small business market, the ability to offer not just smartphones as an extension to the PDA and laptop market, but also the data side for the PDA and laptops, is a very attractive proposition for the entire customer Base.
The implementation model should stay at the wholesale side (unlike the HP model) leveraging the Dell name to obtain wholesale agreements for both wifi and GPRS, as well as voice scenarios which can include VoIP with public network termination throughout the world from its dell computers and PDAs.
The MNO can benefit from a huge channel to market that is the dell sales channel and existing customer base, plus increased data traffic.

Implementation Model:	Hybrid to ESP
Business model:	horizontal; Dell data MVNO
MVNO Advantage:	Synergies in sales
MNO Advantage:	High data revenue, low SAC
Customer advantage, USP	One stop shop

originally posted by Christian Borrman 19:26pm 24/11/08

Converged MVNO

Original Converged MVNO article 2008:

Converged MVNOs

Convergence and the Mobile Virtual Model work well together, in principle

I once set-up a converged MVNO with my own hard-earned cash, that was in 2001... It seems that this model is now about ready for market! However, it is a very different model and a very different market.

In 2001 I set up a converged MVNO based on business use, where the primary focus was voice, as other such as bluephone, then BT fusion were focused on voice. However, the focus has now shifted to data; the reason? One is that regulators have pushed down roaming charges, the other is that users are more savvy and have multiple phones. The real reason is that voice, which is what GSM was invented to do, not data, is very effective over licensed spectrum, with multiple slots giving high(ish!) quality, and within the present price landscape, the ability to "bargain bucket". That is, there is nothing stopping any mobile operator bundling more and more minutes to squeeze out converged competition, at least in the single-country environment in which spectrum is licensed.

Data, however, is a different matter, with the idea that we will all be walking around watching IPTV, downloading MP3s, email attachments, pictures and videos, while having a video call... well the licensed spectrum bandwidth is just not there, at any price.

It is an interesting twist that just 7 years after I first spoke at 3GSM Cannes and caused silence over my intention to push email and voice over Bluetooth in offices, a silence caused by the imminent threat of losing money, that you can download an application called truphone for free to do just that over wi-fi, you can get your email over the mobile network via blackberry, using sms that are not charged for... and nobody is making the money that I was offering the host mobile networks (MNO) back then by operating a converged MVNO.

There are converged MVNOs however, and many MVNOs have invested in broadband in order to facilitate the already undertaken testing and research, some examples:

• O2 have bought Be, one of the better broadband ADSL2+ providers, the parent Movistar already has Broadband
• Orange have bought Wanadoo, multinational
• Vodafone not only have broadband, but also host the BT converged MVNO, one of only a few commercially available
• Cingular, Bell, Orange, Vodafone, and many others were testing the earliest convergence products by 2002 and 2003, shortly after I began testing them in 2001

However, there have been very few commercially rolled out services:

• BT Fusion, was Bluphone, to a small UK MVNO audience
• Tesco in simple VoIP format
• Bell have rolled out trials, but it has not been the next mobile killer application a la PTT by a long shot
• ... hopefully coming soon

originally posted by Christian Borrman 18:51pm 07/05/08, last updated 13;11 25/05/08